Regular season
25-22-152.1%
Playoffs
0-0-0—
2026 overall
25-22-152.1%
Week 4
Regular 0-0-016 pendingSteelers @ BrownsBrowns +2.5What on earth are we talking about? We have seen plenty from the Steelers to know they shouldn't be favored on the road, much less by this. Pittsburgh's offense is 30th in the league and Rodgers is at negative 0.21 EPA per dropback. Watson actually looks like a real NFL quarterback again, 587 yards, five touchdowns, one pick. Serviceable. And the Steelers are 19-21 against the spread as a road favorite since 2015.
Colts @ CommandersColts -3.5I can't trust last week against the Seahawks. That was an outlier game for the Commanders, has to be, right? Washington has given up 92 points in three games, third most in the league, and the defense ranks 26th. The Colts' defense is 31st, so this is two bad defenses in London, and I'll take the one with Jonathan Taylor.
Cardinals @ GiantsGiants +2.5Are the Cardinals good enough to be road favorites? Not sure I'm ready to go there, even against the Giants. Arizona is 13-12 against the spread as a road favorite over the last decade and the defense ranks 28th. The Giants have scored 46 points in three games.
Titans @ RavensTitans +11.5I may not even watch this game. I can't stand to watch literally my second-favorite Titan of all time behind CJ2K obliterate my team for three hours, much less Lamar Jackson. That said, the Titans have a tendency to be in really dumb games and 11.5 is still a lot. As a 10-plus point dog since 2015 they've covered 5 of 12 and won two of them outright. I'm almost certainly wrong about this pick.
Patriots @ BillsBills -6.5The Pats stink and Drake Maye is having a full-blown meltdown. Six interceptions and one touchdown in three games, 36 points scored as a team, twelve a game. Buffalo has scored 101.
Jets @ BearsJets +3.5The Bears' defense showed me something, considering they've been awful lately. They held the Eagles to seven, and yes, Philadelphia may be having major issues, but they're still good and they got dominated for most of that game. The Jets' offense is 12th in the league and Geno has 783 yards with zero interceptions. Three and a half is enough.
Jaguars @ BengalsBengals -2.5I'm happy to be late to the Jags and Trevor Lawrence party, if I ever show up. Lawrence has seven touchdowns to two picks and the best EPA per dropback of anyone with 80 attempts, and Jacksonville has allowed 36 points in three games.
Cowboys @ TexansCowboys +3The Cowboys at minimum should be 2-1, and the Texans can't score. Houston has 54 points in three games and the offense ranks 24th. Stroud has three touchdowns and has been sacked ten times. If they can't score yet again, against a Dallas defense that ranks dead last, it's time to accept they aren't good.
Packers @ BuccaneersPackers -3.5Do or die for the Packers, plus the Bucs are in shambles right now. Baker was playing terribly and now he's out, other guys are hurt, and Todd Bowles is coaching for his life. Tampa's offense is 32nd in the league, dead last, and Mayfield had been sacked 13 times, most in football. Green Bay's offense is 26th, so this isn't a great team, it's the less broken one.
Rams @ EaglesRams -3Can't bet on the Eagles right now, not until they turn things around offensively. Philadelphia's offense was fine for two weeks and then cratered against Chicago, negative 0.30 EPA per play and seven points. The Rams' defense ranks eighth.
Dolphins @ VikingsVikings -10.5With Murray playing the way he did, you never know with this league. He looks awful, 18 of 34 for 186 with two picks. But I'll trust the overwhelming talent. Minnesota's defense is number one in the league and has given up 41 points in three games, and Miami has scored 36.
Broncos @ 49ers49ers -3The Niners are going to score, that's for sure. Best offense in football, 98 points in three games. The question is whether they can keep the Broncos and Bo Nix from rallying late. Denver has scored 28 fourth-quarter points in three games, the most of anyone on this slate.
Chiefs @ RaidersRaiders +4.5I think the Raiders are legit good. 3-0, second-ranked defense, 54 points allowed. I think the Chiefs win, but this is a closer game, and the Chiefs haven't reached blowout territory again even if you think the Raiders aren't on their level.
Chargers @ SeahawksSeahawks -7They're going to be pissed. Seattle's defense ranks third and the Chargers' offense ranks 31st with 44 points in three games. A pissed-off top-three defense against an offense that can't score is how you cover seven.
Lions @ PanthersPanthers +3.5I like the way Bryce is playing and he gets an awful defense. Young has 939 yards, seven touchdowns, two picks, and Detroit has given up 95 points, the most in the league, with a defense that ranks 29th. Carolina's offense is tenth. The Lions will score too, but 3.5 in a shootout is points I'll take.
Falcons @ SaintsFalcons +2.5I'll take the dog here and the belief that last week wasn't a total mirage. Atlanta beat Green Bay by 21 on Thursday, and the Saints' defense ranks 23rd.
Pittsburgh Steelers
@ Cleveland BrownsPENDING
@ Cleveland BrownsPENDING
Line
Steelers -2.5
Steelers -2.5My pick
Browns +2.5
Browns +2.5Indianapolis Colts
@ Washington CommandersPENDING
@ Washington CommandersPENDING
Line
Colts -3.5
Colts -3.5My pickColts -3.5
Colts -3.5Arizona Cardinals
@ New York GiantsPENDING
@ New York GiantsPENDING
Line
Cardinals -2.5
Cardinals -2.5My pick
Giants +2.5
Giants +2.5Tennessee Titans
@ Baltimore RavensPENDING
@ Baltimore RavensPENDING
Line
Ravens -11.5
Ravens -11.5My pick
Titans +11.5
Titans +11.5New England Patriots
@ Buffalo BillsPENDING
@ Buffalo BillsPENDING
Line
Bills -6.5
Bills -6.5My pickBills -6.5
Bills -6.5New York Jets
@ Chicago BearsPENDING
@ Chicago BearsPENDING
Line
Bears -3.5
Bears -3.5My pick
Jets +3.5
Jets +3.5Jacksonville Jaguars
@ Cincinnati BengalsPENDING
@ Cincinnati BengalsPENDING
Line
Bengals -2.5
Bengals -2.5My pickBengals -2.5
Bengals -2.5Dallas Cowboys
@ Houston TexansPENDING
@ Houston TexansPENDING
Line
Texans -3
Texans -3My pick
Cowboys +3
Cowboys +3Green Bay Packers
@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersPENDING
@ Tampa Bay BuccaneersPENDING
Line
Packers -3.5
Packers -3.5My pickPackers -3.5
Packers -3.5Los Angeles Rams
@ Philadelphia EaglesPENDING
@ Philadelphia EaglesPENDING
Line
Rams -3
Rams -3My pickRams -3
Rams -3Miami Dolphins
@ Minnesota VikingsPENDING
@ Minnesota VikingsPENDING
Line
Vikings -10.5
Vikings -10.5My pickVikings -10.5
Vikings -10.5Denver Broncos
@ San Francisco 49ersPENDING
@ San Francisco 49ersPENDING
Line
49ers -3
49ers -3My pick49ers -3
49ers -3Kansas City Chiefs
@ Las Vegas RaidersPENDING
@ Las Vegas RaidersPENDING
Line
Chiefs -4.5
Chiefs -4.5My pick
Raiders +4.5
Raiders +4.5Los Angeles Chargers
@ Seattle SeahawksPENDING
@ Seattle SeahawksPENDING
Line
Seahawks -7
Seahawks -7My pickSeahawks -7
Seahawks -7Detroit Lions
@ Carolina PanthersPENDING
@ Carolina PanthersPENDING
Line
Lions -3.5
Lions -3.5My pick
Panthers +3.5
Panthers +3.5Atlanta Falcons
@ New Orleans SaintsPENDING
@ New Orleans SaintsPENDING
Line
Saints -2.5
Saints -2.5My pick
Falcons +2.5
Falcons +2.5Week 3
Regular 7-9-0Falcons @ PackersFalcons +4.5Penix is back, and so is Tua, I guess, and the Packers are really struggling to get going. Green Bay has 42 points in two games, Love is 37 of 71 and has been sacked seven times, and they needed overtime to beat the Jets with 199 yards of offense. I can't trust them with 4.5 points, even against a Falcons team that has scored 16 all year.
Chargers @ BillsBills -7The Chargers might be flatly bad, and so is Justin Herbert. Three picks to two touchdowns through two games, and the offense has 28 points total. Buffalo has 77. Seven is a lot, but so is a 49-point gap in two weeks.
Panthers @ BrownsPanthers -2.5Panthers, Bryce Young, both better than I thought. He's got six touchdowns to one pick and 648 yards, and Carolina has 71 points, which is the most in the league after two weeks. Cleveland is 1-1 and beat Tampa, but the offense has 33 points and Watson has been sacked seven times.
Bengals @ SteelersBengals -3.5The Bengals might be back. Burrow and the offense have been a little slow to the party, three touchdowns to one pick and the defense doing the work with eight sacks and four takeaways, but they're 2-0 and that makes them very scary. Pittsburgh scored three last week.
Jets @ LionsLions -6.5I'm not 100% sure I'm ready to buy the Jets yet. They beat the Titans and lost a game to Green Bay they should have won, and Detroit has scored 62 in two weeks. The Lions' defense has given up 71, so this isn't a lock, but the Jets' offense hasn't shown me it can keep up with 31 a game.
Texans @ ColtsTexans -2.5The Colts right now have one of the worst defenses we've seen. 74 points allowed in two games, 41 to Baltimore and 33 to Kansas City. Houston's offense has been the problem, six points last week, but Stroud threw for 353 doing it, and this is the defense that fixes that.
Patriots @ JaguarsJaguars -3I keep telling you guys about waiting on these young quarterbacks. The Pats won last week, but Drake Maye still doesn't look like the guy we saw last year. Four interceptions to one touchdown through two games and six sacks. Jacksonville is 1-1 and beat the Browns by 24, and their offense has scored 47.
Chiefs @ DolphinsChiefs -10.5How could you possibly bet on the Dolphins. 26 points in two games, 62 allowed, zero sacks as a defense, and Malik Willis is the quarterback. I said this would be a disaster and it's a disaster. 10.5 is a lot, and I'm laying it anyway.
Titans @ GiantsTitans +3The Titans showed a little flash against the Eagles, though they completely choked it down. Need to see the Giants without Dart, because Winston is certainly capable of keeping the other team in games. He was 11 of 27 for 111 in Los Angeles. Ward was, I guess, 1% better than Week 1, and he still hasn't thrown a pick this year. The total is 39.5, so three points is a lot in this one.
Seahawks @ CommandersSeahawks -7Disastrous season already for the Commanders. 0-2, 61 points allowed, and Seattle's defense has given up 17 all year. That's not a typo. Seventeen points in two games.
Cardinals @ 49ers49ers -8.5The Seahawks showed us last week who the Cardinals really are. Arizona scored seven in a 24-point loss, and San Francisco has outscored its two opponents 62-20. The Niners are the best team in football by the numbers through two weeks and this is the biggest gap on the board.
Vikings @ BuccaneersBuccaneers +1.5Bucs must win, period. They're 0-2 with five giveaways and the second-worst offense in the league by the numbers. Minnesota won 9-3 last week. This is a game where one team has to have it and the other just won.
Ravens @ CowboysCowboys +3.5I actually don't think the Ravens are all that good. Call me crazy. They lost at home to the Saints, they've given up 47, and Lamar has been sacked five times. Dallas has scored 57 in two games, and the total here is 52.5, so I'll take the points in a shootout.
Raiders @ SaintsRaiders +3I don't think either team is capable of blowing the other out. Not sure who wins, so I'll take the three points and a Raiders team playing pretty well, 2-0, eight sacks, plus five in turnovers, and Bowers should be back this week. New Orleans just beat Baltimore, so they've earned the favorite tag, but three points in a 43.5 total is where I want to be on the dog.
Rams @ BroncosRams -2.5The Rams are back on track, I think. They beat the Giants by 22 and the defense has given up 33 in two games. Denver scored 20 against Jacksonville and 10 against Kansas City. Nix and that offense haven't shown me anything yet.
Eagles @ BearsEagles -4.5Who is playing quarterback for the Bears? Williams left last week and Bagent finished, and Chicago scored three points with 297 yards. The Eagles have won two by a combined four points, so this isn't a great Eagles team either, but I know who their quarterback is.
Atlanta Falcons
@ Green Bay Packers✓ WIN
@ Green Bay Packers✓ WIN
LinePackers -4.5
Packers -4.5My pickFalcons +4.5
Falcons +4.5Los Angeles Chargers
@ Buffalo Bills✓ WIN
@ Buffalo Bills✓ WIN
LineBills -7
Bills -7My pickBills -7
Bills -7Carolina Panthers
@ Cleveland Browns✗ LOSS
@ Cleveland Browns✗ LOSS
LinePanthers -2.5
Panthers -2.5My pickPanthers -2.5
Panthers -2.5Cincinnati Bengals
@ Pittsburgh Steelers✗ LOSS
@ Pittsburgh Steelers✗ LOSS
LineBengals -3.5
Bengals -3.5My pickBengals -3.5
Bengals -3.5New York Jets
@ Detroit Lions✓ WIN
@ Detroit Lions✓ WIN
LineLions -6.5
Lions -6.5My pickLions -6.5
Lions -6.5Houston Texans
@ Indianapolis Colts✗ LOSS
@ Indianapolis Colts✗ LOSS
LineTexans -2.5
Texans -2.5My pickTexans -2.5
Texans -2.5New England Patriots
@ Jacksonville Jaguars✓ WIN
@ Jacksonville Jaguars✓ WIN
Line
Jaguars -3
Jaguars -3My pickJaguars -3
Jaguars -3Kansas City Chiefs
@ Miami Dolphins✓ WIN
@ Miami Dolphins✓ WIN
LineChiefs -10.5
Chiefs -10.5My pickChiefs -10.5
Chiefs -10.5Tennessee Titans
@ New York Giants✗ LOSS
@ New York Giants✗ LOSS
LineGiants -3
Giants -3My pickTitans +3
Titans +3Seattle Seahawks
@ Washington Commanders✗ LOSS
@ Washington Commanders✗ LOSS
LineSeahawks -7
Seahawks -7My pickSeahawks -7
Seahawks -7Arizona Cardinals
@ San Francisco 49ers✗ LOSS
@ San Francisco 49ers✗ LOSS
Line49ers -8.5
49ers -8.5My pick49ers -8.5
49ers -8.5Minnesota Vikings
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers✗ LOSS
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers✗ LOSS
LineVikings -1.5
Vikings -1.5My pick
Buccaneers +1.5
Buccaneers +1.5Baltimore Ravens
@ Dallas Cowboys✓ WIN
@ Dallas Cowboys✓ WIN
LineRavens -3.5
Ravens -3.5My pickCowboys +3.5
Cowboys +3.5Las Vegas Raiders
@ New Orleans Saints✓ WIN
@ New Orleans Saints✓ WIN
LineSaints -3
Saints -3My pickRaiders +3
Raiders +3Los Angeles Rams
@ Denver Broncos✗ LOSS
@ Denver Broncos✗ LOSS
LineRams -2.5
Rams -2.5My pickRams -2.5
Rams -2.5Philadelphia Eagles
@ Chicago Bears✗ LOSS
@ Chicago Bears✗ LOSS
Line
Eagles -4.5
Eagles -4.5My pickEagles -4.5
Eagles -4.5Week 2
Regular 10-6-0Lions @ BillsBills -5.5One name, Josh Allen. The Bills' offense is among the best in football and everyone WANTS the Lions to be. They're a step below. Both teams scored 28 a game last year, but Buffalo did it with the fourth-best passing game in the league, and they're opening a new stadium. Good luck.
Panthers @ FalconsPanthers -2.5The Falcons just stink. They scored 13 in Pittsburgh, blew four fourth-quarter leads last year, and now Tua is the fix. Carolina gave up 59, which I'm choosing to treat as a Week 1 thing.
Saints @ RavensRavens -8.5Lamar Jackson looked to have a little more pep in his step and Derrick Henry is an alien, three touchdowns and 144 yards on a Colts defense that was middle of the pack. This may be the AFC's number one seed and the NFL's number one offense when the regular season is all said and done.
Vikings @ BearsVikings +4.5I just know I'm going to regret this pick, but the larger point is I'm not buying Week 1 Bears scoring 59 points. We also watched the Dolphins score 70 once, by the way also very early in the season, and that team lost in the wild card round. Chicago allowed 37 in the same game, and that defense gave up more explosive plays than almost anyone last year.
Bengals @ TexansBengals +2.5My fantasy team needs the Texans to dominate this game, but I think the Bengals are actually back. Burrow put 33 on Tampa and this is a red zone offense that scored a touchdown 69% of the time last year, tied for the best in the league. Houston's offense was 21st and just scored 31 and lost.
Browns @ BuccaneersBuccaneers -8.5Baker revenge against the Browns. Now he was terrible last week, but there is no way he is as bad against the Browns, right? Cleveland's offense was the worst in football last year and Deshaun Watson just put up 10 on Jacksonville. Week 2 favorites of 7 or more cover about half the time, which is a lot better than the small favorites do.
Packers @ JetsJets +3.5I never bought into Jordan Love. I just don't. Green Bay gave up 39 to Minnesota and Matt LaFleur may get fired if they go and lose to the Jets. The Jets beating the Titans is one thing. Beating the Packers, even if the Packers stink, is a different level even for them. Road favorites cover 45% in Week 2, so the number is on my side even if the Jets aren't.
Steelers @ PatriotsSteelers +5.5I have always been a let's pause before anointing this guy type of guy, and it's no different with Drake Maye. I don't get why everyone blows their mind over a SINGLE good season. He stunk in the playoffs and he was awful in Week 1, ten points in Seattle. What are we doing? Pittsburgh's defense held Atlanta to 13, and Tomlin doesn't lose two in a row to teams he can bully.
Eagles @ TitansEagles -7I just can't bet on the Titans in good faith right now. They lost by 13 at home to the Jets and looked completely inept doing it. The total is 39.5, so 7 is a big number in a low-scoring game, and I'm laying it anyway.
Jaguars @ BroncosBroncos -2.5Broncos bounce back, and Payton takes back the play-calling duties. The Jags beat the Browns last week, Deshaun Watson threw a pick within his first five passes, and you knew right then the game was over. Let's not overreact to Trevor Lawrence and the Jags. Denver's defense was top five last year and gave up 31 in Kansas City with short fields all night.
Raiders @ ChargersRaiders +6.5The Raiders might be decent with Kirk Cousins, plus he hopefully gets a healthy Brock Bowers back. Again, the quarterback here. Justin Herbert was and has been atrocious, and he just lost by 12 at home to Jacoby Brissett. The Chargers' offense was 20th in the league last year, and 6.5 is a lot for an offense that can't score.
Seahawks @ CardinalsCardinals +3.5I still want to pick the Seahawks frankly, but I'm giving the Cardinals a decent chance against a backup and a Cardinals team that does like to air it out. Arizona scored 26 on the road last week. Seattle's offense scored 13 at home against New England, so the defense is carrying everything.
Commanders @ CowboysCowboys -4.5Must win for the Cowboys, flatly. You can't start the season 0-2 and 0-2 in the division. Since 1999, nineteen teams have started 0-2 with both losses inside the division, and one of them made the playoffs, last year's Bears. Washington had the third-worst defense in the league last year and Dallas scored 27 a game. Dallas has to have this one.
Dolphins @ 49ers49ers -13.5It's a lot of points and I never like betting a lot of points like this, but it is what it is. The only saving grace for Miami is the Niners coming back from Australia, which might be a little bit of a factor. Miami scored 13 on the Raiders. San Francisco just beat the Rams by 20 on the road. I'm sticking with the Niners.
Colts @ ChiefsChiefs -6.5The Chiefs are not back, they never left, you guys are just absurd. Kansas City went 6-11 last year with a positive point differential and a 1-9 record in one-score games, which is bad luck, not a bad team. Then they beat Denver by 21. Indianapolis gave up 41 to Baltimore.
Giants @ RamsRams -7The Rams must win. You would technically be 0-2 at home with a loss, both in the NFC, one in the division. Twenty-one teams since 1999 have started 0-2 with both losses at home, and one made the playoffs. Los Angeles was the best team in football by the numbers last year and lost by 20. The Giants' defense was 23rd and they went 1-7 in one-score games last year, so the 28-20 over Dallas has some luck in it.
Detroit Lions
@ Buffalo Bills✓ WIN
@ Buffalo Bills✓ WIN
LineBills -5.5
Bills -5.5My pickBills -5.5
Bills -5.5Carolina Panthers
@ Atlanta Falcons✓ WIN
@ Atlanta Falcons✓ WIN
LinePanthers -2.5
Panthers -2.5My pickPanthers -2.5
Panthers -2.5New Orleans Saints
@ Baltimore Ravens✗ LOSS
@ Baltimore Ravens✗ LOSS
LineRavens -8.5
Ravens -8.5My pickRavens -8.5
Ravens -8.5Minnesota Vikings
@ Chicago Bears✓ WIN
@ Chicago Bears✓ WIN
LineBears -4.5
Bears -4.5My pickVikings +4.5
Vikings +4.5Cincinnati Bengals
@ Houston Texans✓ WIN
@ Houston Texans✓ WIN
LineTexans -2.5
Texans -2.5My pickBengals +2.5
Bengals +2.5Cleveland Browns
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers✗ LOSS
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers✗ LOSS
LineBuccaneers -8.5
Buccaneers -8.5My pickBuccaneers -8.5
Buccaneers -8.5Green Bay Packers
@ New York Jets✓ WIN
@ New York Jets✓ WIN
LinePackers -3.5
Packers -3.5My pickJets +3.5
Jets +3.5Pittsburgh Steelers
@ New England Patriots✗ LOSS
@ New England Patriots✗ LOSS
Line
Patriots -5.5
Patriots -5.5My pickSteelers +5.5
Steelers +5.5Philadelphia Eagles
@ Tennessee Titans✗ LOSS
@ Tennessee Titans✗ LOSS
LineEagles -7
Eagles -7My pickEagles -7
Eagles -7Jacksonville Jaguars
@ Denver Broncos✓ WIN
@ Denver Broncos✓ WIN
Line
Broncos -2.5
Broncos -2.5My pickBroncos -2.5
Broncos -2.5Las Vegas Raiders
@ Los Angeles Chargers✓ WIN
@ Los Angeles Chargers✓ WIN
Line
Chargers -6.5
Chargers -6.5My pickRaiders +6.5
Raiders +6.5Seattle Seahawks
@ Arizona Cardinals✗ LOSS
@ Arizona Cardinals✗ LOSS
LineSeahawks -3.5
Seahawks -3.5My pickCardinals +3.5
Cardinals +3.5Washington Commanders
@ Dallas Cowboys✓ WIN
@ Dallas Cowboys✓ WIN
LineCowboys -4.5
Cowboys -4.5My pickCowboys -4.5
Cowboys -4.5Miami Dolphins
@ San Francisco 49ers✓ WIN
@ San Francisco 49ers✓ WIN
Line49ers -13.5
49ers -13.5My pick49ers -13.5
49ers -13.5Indianapolis Colts
@ Kansas City Chiefs✗ LOSS
@ Kansas City Chiefs✗ LOSS
LineChiefs -6.5
Chiefs -6.5My pickChiefs -6.5
Chiefs -6.5New York Giants
@ Los Angeles Rams✓ WIN
@ Los Angeles Rams✓ WIN
LineRams -7
Rams -7My pickRams -7
Rams -7Week 1
Regular 8-7-1Patriots @ SeahawksSeahawks -3The playoffs and the Super Bowl gave me real pause on Drake Maye. A lot of Peyton Manning vibes, which is great, obviously, but Peyton wasn't fantastic in the playoffs either. Seattle had the second-best defense in football by EPA last year, and New England shows up with Barmore, Henderson, and its starting center on the injury report.
49ers @ RamsRams -3.5I hate the Rams' travel schedule, but they're flatly better than the Niners and healthier, which matters in Week 1. They also added Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald to a defense that was already top ten. San Francisco went 5-1 in one-score games last year, and that kind of luck does not carry over.
Falcons @ SteelersSteelers -3The Steelers will end up being the bad good team. Good record, paper tiger. They were +12 in turnovers on a +10 point differential last year, which is exactly that profile. They still smoke the Falcons, who blew four fourth-quarter leads last year and are handing the offense to Tua.
Ravens @ ColtsColts +3.5I think Baltimore wins, but I'm not buying the Ravens hype. Lamar is older with no contract, new coach, new offense, Henry is older, the defense was middling, and the line is a question. The numbers back the line worry, Baltimore allowed a sack on 8.9% of dropbacks, fourth worst in the league. First-time head coaches win 40% of openers. Colts keep it close.
Bills @ TexansBills -1.5Never will I ever bet on Stroud again until I see the complete opposite of what I saw last year with my own eyes. Houston's offense finished 21st in EPA and scored a touchdown on 45% of red zone trips, bottom five in the league. The 12-5 was a +15 turnover margin and an elite defense carrying him.
Bears @ PanthersPanthers +3I'm not into the Caleb Williams thing. Didn't buy it his rookie year, and last year was smoke and mirrors. Chicago led the league at +22 in turnovers and still had the third-worst explosive-play defense in football. They were on season nine of "can we come back again?" They have Caleb Williams, not Tom Brady.
Buccaneers @ BengalsBengals -3.5I'm all in on the Bucs, but there's no way the Bengals come out slow yet again, not with Burrow healthy and a red zone offense that scored a touchdown 69% of the time, tied for the best in the league. Zac Taylor is 2-5 in openers, so I know this is a bet against the pattern. The Bucs were one of the few teams with real noise in the offseason.
Browns @ JaguarsJaguars -8.5What's to say. The Browns stink to high heaven, and Deshaun Watson is the Week 1 starter. It's a crime. Jacksonville outscored opponents by 146 points from Week 10 on, the best second half of anyone in the league.
Saints @ LionsLions -7This one scares me. Shough could be a complete mirage or the real deal, and 7 is a lot. New Orleans quietly had a top-ten defense by EPA last year. Campbell is 4-1 against the spread in openers, so I'll lay it and hold my breath.
Jets @ TitansTitans -1.5You cannot lose at home to the Jets on opening day, and yet here the Titans are in a must-win in Week 1. Geno Smith is making his return to the Jets after being punched in the face and shown the door. If he resurrects them over the number one pick with all his new toys and coaches, it's a full-blown disaster and the schedule gets no easier. The matchup says it shouldn't happen. The Jets had the worst pass defense in football by a mile last year, and Cam Ward gets it with a new coordinator and new weapons. Both teams finished bottom two in the league, but the Jets were 150 points underwater from Week 10 on. As a fan I'm hoping the product looks more like the camp stories than the preseason footage.
Cardinals @ ChargersChargers -1010 is a lot, and if the Cardinals were ever going to be feisty it's Week 1. Favorites of 10 or more have covered 30% of openers since 1999, and the Chargers went 6-2 in one-score games last year, which is not a team that blows people out. But if they're true Super Bowl contenders they win this by 10 easily. Harbaugh is 6-0 in openers.
Packers @ VikingsVikings -1.5My gut says buy into Kyler. We saw him do it once, briefly. Minnesota's offense was 28th in EPA last year, so he can't make it worse, and the defense was top five. Green Bay had the second-best passing offense in football, so this comes down to whether Kyler is a real upgrade. Minnesota isn't the Cardinals and I have to believe there is something in there.
Dolphins @ RaidersRaiders -3.5A lot of people were into the Malik Willis hype last year and wanted him paid. I'm ecstatic he got paid. As a Titans fan I can tell you this is going to be a disaster for the Dolphins. He is rough. Vegas had the worst offense in the NFL last year, but Kirk Cousins is a real quarterback and Miami's defense was bottom ten.
Commanders @ EaglesEagles -5.5There's a world where the offseason was just noise, the number 5 jersey thing with Jayden Daniels is overblown, and he returns to rookie form. I'm betting on the Eagles' track record over Washington's by a DC mile. Sirianni is 5-0 in openers, Washington had the third-worst defense in the league, and Quinn is 2-6 against the spread in Week 1.
Cowboys @ GiantsGiants +3I think the Cowboys end up really good. But these games get goofy, and this is the healthiest Dart and Skattebo will be all year. Dallas allowed 30 points a game with the worst defense in the league by EPA, and the Giants went 1-7 in one-score games, which is the kind of luck that flips.
Broncos @ ChiefsChiefs -3Let the record show I am not in on any of the Chiefs or Mahomes blasphemy. Kansas City went 1-9 in one-score games with a positive point differential, and Denver went 11-2. Both of those numbers come back to earth. Reid is 17-10 in openers.
New England Patriots
@ Seattle SeahawksPUSH
@ Seattle SeahawksPUSH
LineSeahawks -3
Seahawks -3My pickSeahawks -3
Seahawks -3San Francisco 49ers
@ Los Angeles Rams✗ LOSS
@ Los Angeles Rams✗ LOSS
LineRams -3.5
Rams -3.5My pickRams -3.5
Rams -3.5Atlanta Falcons
@ Pittsburgh Steelers✓ WIN
@ Pittsburgh Steelers✓ WIN
LineSteelers -3
Steelers -3My pickSteelers -3
Steelers -3Baltimore Ravens
@ Indianapolis Colts✗ LOSS
@ Indianapolis Colts✗ LOSS
LineRavens -3.5
Ravens -3.5My pickColts +3.5
Colts +3.5Buffalo Bills
@ Houston Texans✓ WIN
@ Houston Texans✓ WIN
LineBills -1.5
Bills -1.5My pickBills -1.5
Bills -1.5Chicago Bears
@ Carolina Panthers✗ LOSS
@ Carolina Panthers✗ LOSS
LineBears -3
Bears -3My pickPanthers +3
Panthers +3Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@ Cincinnati Bengals✓ WIN
@ Cincinnati Bengals✓ WIN
LineBengals -3.5
Bengals -3.5My pickBengals -3.5
Bengals -3.5Cleveland Browns
@ Jacksonville Jaguars✓ WIN
@ Jacksonville Jaguars✓ WIN
LineJaguars -8.5
Jaguars -8.5My pickJaguars -8.5
Jaguars -8.5New Orleans Saints
@ Detroit Lions✗ LOSS
@ Detroit Lions✗ LOSS
LineLions -7
Lions -7My pickLions -7
Lions -7New York Jets
@ Tennessee Titans✗ LOSS
@ Tennessee Titans✗ LOSS
LineTitans -1.5
Titans -1.5My pickTitans -1.5
Titans -1.5Arizona Cardinals
@ Los Angeles Chargers✗ LOSS
@ Los Angeles Chargers✗ LOSS
LineChargers -10
Chargers -10My pickChargers -10
Chargers -10Green Bay Packers
@ Minnesota Vikings✓ WIN
@ Minnesota Vikings✓ WIN
LineVikings -1.5
Vikings -1.5My pickVikings -1.5
Vikings -1.5Miami Dolphins
@ Las Vegas Raiders✓ WIN
@ Las Vegas Raiders✓ WIN
LineRaiders -3.5
Raiders -3.5My pickRaiders -3.5
Raiders -3.5Washington Commanders
@ Philadelphia Eagles✗ LOSS
@ Philadelphia Eagles✗ LOSS
LineEagles -5.5
Eagles -5.5My pickEagles -5.5
Eagles -5.5Dallas Cowboys
@ New York Giants✓ WIN
@ New York Giants✓ WIN
LineCowboys -3
Cowboys -3My pickGiants +3
Giants +3Denver Broncos
@ Kansas City Chiefs✓ WIN
@ Kansas City Chiefs✓ WIN
LineChiefs -3
Chiefs -3My pickChiefs -3
Chiefs -3
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